Elaboration of a method for strategic analysis of the development of the Armed Forces

Resumo

Com base em estudos anteriores, foi identificada a necessidade de aumentar a validade das decisões estratégicas para determinar (esclarecer) a estratégia para o desenvolvimento das capacidades das Forças Armadas a longo prazo. Foi identificada a necessidade de desenvolver um método multicritério para análise estratégica do desenvolvimento das Forças Armadas com base em dados estatísticos sobre os resultados da reforma e revisão do setor de defesa, minimizando o uso de julgamentos de especialistas. O método foi desenvolvido utilizando uma abordagem conceitual que combina as etapas selecionadas na escolha das áreas prioritárias para o desenvolvimento das capacidades das Forças Armadas e uma forma recursiva de organizar o processo de computação. O processo envolveu o desenvolvimento de um sistema de indicadores e critérios de desempenho, seus coeficientes de peso, funções recursivas e objetivas para construir um modelo matemático que sintetize os resultados da análise estratégica do desenvolvimento das Forças Armadas. O método de análise estratégica do desenvolvimento das Forças Armadas utilizando o método recursivo de organização do processo computacional (SADAF-RW) torna possível obter avaliações objetivas e o efeito esperado da implementação da opção estratégica escolhida para a tomada de decisões estratégicas. O objetivo é melhorar a prontidão e as capacidades das Forças Armadas a longo prazo, minimizando o uso de julgamentos de especialistas. O método pode ser usado na elaboração de um aparelho científico e metodológico para avaliar a eficácia do planejamento estratégico no desenvolvimento das Forças Armadas, pois se baseia nos princípios de objetividade das avaliações, consistência e eficácia das decisões estratégicas.

Palavras-chave:

método análise estratégica Forças Armadas reforma da defesa revisão de defesa

Referências

Albán Guevara, Rodolfo. “Civil Society in the Promotion and Protection of Democracy in the Americas.” Novum Jus 3, no. 1 (2009): 263–294.

Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine. Resolution no. 941, “Procedure for Conducting a Defence Inspection by the Ministry of Defence”. (2018). http://zakon.rada.gov.ua/laws/show/941-2018-%D0%BF (accessed June 28, 2022)

Cáceres Mendoza, Enrique. “Transitional Justice and Right to Integral Reparation: An Approach to the Colombian Case.” Novum Jus, 7 no. 2 (2013): 55–87, https://doi.org/10.14718/NovumJus.2013.7.2.2.

Calabrese, Armando, Roberta Costa, Nathan Levialdi, and Tamara Menichini. “Integrating Sustainability into Strategic Decision-Making: A Fuzzy AHP Method for the Selection of Relevant Sustainability Issues.” Technological Forecasting and Social Change 139, (2019): 155-168.

Camelo, Heyder Alfonso. “Transformation of the Dynamics of Confrontation in the Armed Conflict.” Novum Jus 5, no. 1 (2011): 55–78

Cita Triana, Ricardo Antonio and Camilo Alberto Quintero Jiménez. “Security Perspectives: Analysis of Crime-Prevention Strategies in Usme.” Novum Jus 5, no. 2 (2011): 103–128.

Coffey, Joseph, and Klaus von Schubert. Defense and Detente: U.S. and West German Perspectives on Defense Policy. Taylor and Francis, 2022. https://doi.org/10.4324/9780429036163.

Džeko, Mišo, Kadoic Nikola, and Dobrovic Željko. “Metamodeling SNAP, a Multi-Criteria Method for Effective Strategic Decision Making on E-learning Issues” (2019). https:// www.researchgate.net/publication/333402136_Metamodeling_SNAP_a_MultiCriteria_Method_for_Effective_Strategic_Decision_Making_on_e-Learning_Issues (accessed June 30, 2022).

Ferrari Puerta, Alberto José. “The Concept of Just War throughout the Ages.” Novum Jus 15, no. 1 (2021): 91–115.

Gandarias, Nerea Toledo, and Jose Ramon Otegi Olaso. “A Novel Method for Strategic Decision Making Based on Project Management Maturity.” Dyna 94, no. 1 (2019): 12-54.

Garg, Harish. “Some Methods for Strategic Decision-Making Problems with Immediate Probabilities in Pythagorean Fuzzy Environment.” International Journal of Intelligent Systems 33, no. 4 (2018): 687-712.

General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Recommendation no. 604/224, “On the Organization of Capability Assessment in the Armed Forces of Ukraine” (2017). Kyiv: Main Department of Defence and Mobilization Planning of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, 2017. http://search.ligazakon.ua/l_doc2.nsf/link1/RE32903.html (accessed June 30, 2022).

Godara, Karan. “Crime of Aggression: Expanding the Relatively Narrow Parameters of Article 8 Bis of the Rome Statute”. Novum Jus 13, no. 2 (2019): 145–159, https://doi.org/10.14718/NovumJus.2019.13.2.8.

Kadoic, Nikola, Nina Begičević Redep, and Blaženka Divjak. “A New Method for Strategic Decision-Making in Higher Education.” Central European Journal of Operations Research 26, no. 3 (2018): 611-628.

Knafo, Samuel. “Neoliberalism and the Origins of Public Management.” Review of International Political Economy 27, no. 4 (2020): 780-801. https://doi.org/10.1080/09692290.2019.1625425.

Korendovich, Viktor. “Application of Multicriteria Analysis for Priority Choice.” Collection Sciences Proceedings of the Ivan Chernyakhovsky National Center for Social Studies 2, no. 60 (2017): 129-136.

Law of Ukraine No. 2469-VIII. “On the National Security of Ukraine” (2018). http://zakon.rada.gov.ua/laws/show/2469-19 (accessed June 29, 2022).

Massa, Alessandra, and Giuseppe Anzera. “The Platformization of Military Communication: The Digital Strategy of the Israel Defence Forces on Twitter.” Media, War and Conflict, (2022). https://doi.org/10.1177/17506352221101257.

Ministry of Defense of Ukraine. “Capacity-based Recommendations for Defense Planning in the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine and the Armed Forces of Ukraine: Approved (2017)”. http://www.mil.gov.ua/content/other/Recommendationson_CBP_120617 (accessed June 30, 2022).

Ministry of Defense of Ukraine. Order no. 484, “The Order of Organization and Implementation of Defense Planning in the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, the Armed Forces of Ukraine and Other Components of the Defense Forces: Approved”. (2020). http://zakon.rada.gov.ua/laws/show/z0196-21#Text (accessed June 27, 2022)

Moniri, Kamel. “A Comparative Study of the Pattern of Human Resource Forces Defending the Country through the Transformation Military Service to the Professional Army.” Geopolitics Quarterly 18, no. 65 (2022): 254-296.

MSS 01.040.008. “Defense Planning. Strategies for the Development of Species, Certain Types of Troops (Forces) of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (Strategic Vision for the Long Term). The Procedure, Frequency of Development, Approval and Amendments (Clarifications) to the Document” (2020). http://www.mil.gov.ua/content/mil_standard/katalog_vst_11_20.pdf (accessed June 29, 2022).

Najgebauer, Andrzej, Ryszard Antkiewicz, Dariusz Pierzchata, and Jarostaw Rulka. “The Computational Intelligence Methods for the Armed Forces Capabilities Allocation Problem.” 2018 IEEE Symposium Series on Computational Intelligence (SSCI): 1723-1730. https://doi.org/10.1109/SSCI.2018.8628787.

Pavlenko, Petro, Serhii Filonenko, Oleh Cherednikov, and Viacheslav Treityak. Mathematical Modeling of Systems and Processes. Кyiv: NAU, 2017.

President of Ukraine. Decree no. 240, “On the Decision of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine”. 2016. http://zakon.rada.gov.ua/laws/ show / 240/2016 # Text (accessed June 27, 2022).

President of Ukraine. Decree no. 121, “On the Decision of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine”. 2021. https://zakon.rada.gov.ua/laws/show/ 121/2021 # Text (accessed June 28, 2022).

Quiñones Páez, Julio, Pablo Ignacio Reyes Beltrán, and Ivonne Patricia León. “The Armed Forces of Colombia in Peacekeeping Missions: Prospects and Opportunities in the Post-Agreement Context.” Novum Jus 16, no. 1 (2022): 279–306, https://doi.org/10.14718/NovumJus.2022.16.1.12.

Rusnak, Ivan, Anatolii Petrenko, Andrii Yakovenko, Ihor Romanyuk, Valerii Kokhno. “Capability-Based Defense Planning: Features and Implementation Prospects.” Science and Defense 2, (2017): 3-10.

Saganyuk, Fedir, Andriy Nalivayko, Anatoliy Pushnyakov, and Yuriy Mudrak. “Approaches to Determining the Strategic Goals of the Development of Troops (Forces) for the Formation of the Strategic Defense Bulletin of Ukraine.” Collection of Scientific Works of the Ivan Chernyakhovsky Center for Research and Development 3, no. 67 (2019): 6-8

Schram, Ben, Elisa Canetti, Robin Orr, and Rodney Pope. “Risk Factors for Injuries in Female Soldiers: A Systematic Review.” BMC Sports Science, Medicine and Rehabilitation 14, no. 1 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1186/s13102-022-00443-z.

Strategic Analysis – The Basis of Strategic Enterprise Management: Models and Methods of Decision Making in Analysis and Audit (2020). http://pidru4niki.com/1856080840761/buhgalterskiy_oblik_ta_audit/strategichniy_analiz_osnova_strategichnogo_upravlinnya_pidpriyemstvom (accessed June 29, 2022).

Sun-O, Choi and Kim Jong-Bae. “National Defense Cloud Strategy.” The Proceedings – 2021 21st ACIS International Semi-Virtual Winter Conference on Software Engineering, Artificial Intelligence, Networking and Parallel/Distributed Computing (SNPD-Winter), (2021): 87-89, https://doi.org/10.1109/SNPDWinter52325.2021.00026.

Surkov, Oleh, Oleksandr Safronov, and Andrii Romanyuk. “Methodical Approach to Determining the Strategy and Criteria for Achieving Joint Defense Capabilities of the Armed Forces and other Components of the Defense Forces.” Collection Sciences Proceedings of the Ivan Chernyakhovsky National Center for Social Studies 2, no. 69 (2020): 47-52.

Surkov, Oleh. “Conceptual Approach to the Choice of Priority Areas for the Development of Capabilities of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and other Components of the Defense Forces”. Collection Sciences Proceedings of the Ivan Chernyakhovsky National Center for Social Studies 2, no. 63 (2018): 39-45.

Surkov, Oleh. “The Essence and Role of Strategic Planning in the Fields of Defense and Military Construction.” Collection of Scientific Works of Military Academy 1, no. 13 (2020): 152-157.

Tagirova, Alsu. “From Crisis Management to Realignment of Forces the Diplomatic “Geometry” of the 1969–1978 Sino-soviet Border Talks”. Journal of Cold War Studies 24, no. 1 (2022): 116-154. https://doi.org/10.1162/jcws_a_01027.

Turan, Hasan Hüseyin, Sondoss Elsawah, Fatemeh Jalalvand, and Mike Ryan. “Solving Strategic Military Workforce Planning Problems with Simulation-Optimization.” The 2020 IEEE Symposium Series on Computational Intelligence, SSCI, (2020): 1620-1625. https://doi.org/10.1109/SSCI47803.2020.9308483.

Vladimir Llano, Jairo. “Notes for Understanding Contemporary Colombian Armed Conflict”. Novum Jus 5, no. 2 (2011): 9–27.

Voronina, Alevtyna, and Olena Kopyl. “Making Strategic Decisions in Conditions of Uncertainty and Risk.” Young Scientist 1, no. 1 (2016): 12-44.

Zatserkovny, Vitalii, Ivan Tishaev, and Vsevold Demydov. Research Methodology. Nizhyn: NDU, 2017.

##submission.citations.for##